How to wreck a deal

IN one of the biggest foreign policy decisions of his presidency to date, Donald Trump has pulled the US out of the JCPOA, as the Iran nuclear deal is formally known. The American president took the decision despite entreaties from some of his closest European allies — the past few days had seen much transatlantic diplomacy as European leaders tried to convince him to stay in the deal — as well as consistent confirmation from the IAEA that Iran was in full compliance with the agreement. Mr Trump’s decision has been mostly condemned by the world community, with the notable exception of Israel and Saudi Arabia. In fact, Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu issued a gushing statement welcoming Mr Trump’s “historic” decision soon after it was announced.

While fathoming the US leader’s actions is not easy, two apparent motives spring to mind to explain why he quit what was by most accounts a successful deal. Firstly, Mr Trump is surrounded by warlike hawks — most of them close to Israel — who want nothing less than a full confrontation with Iran. Secondly, it seems that Mr Trump wants to undo every major decision made by his predecessor Barack Obama. Whatever the case, pulling out of the deal has put into question America’s commitments with the rest of the world; critics would be justified in asking that if the US cannot honour a multilateral agreement that was being respected by Iran, can its promises be taken seriously elsewhere? Moreover, the Middle East is a complicated place. Multiple actors are involved in the region’s numerous wars. Therefore, tearing up the JCPOA due to Iran’s alleged activities in the region is to mix two separate issues.

Iran’s reaction to the US move has largely been measured, except for an episode on Wednesday in which lawmakers inside parliament torched the US flag. President Hassan Rouhani has said his country will continue to honour the deal, while the EU nations have stated the same. However, the question arises: if the US sanctions any state doing business with Iran now that it has pulled out of the JCPOA, how will the deal survive? From here, effectively it is into the unknown. If Washington’s rhetoric gets more aggressive, Tehran can be expected to reply in kind, which does not augur well for regional peace. Around the time the deal was announced, there were reports that Israel had fired upon Iranian targets in Syria from the occupied Golan. With the nuclear deal scuttled and the coterie of hawks in Washington itching for a fight, there is a very real chance that Iran and Israel’s confrontation in Syria may transform into an open war. Mr Trump may have completely dismissed world opinion on the JCPOA; however, he needs to heed more rational voices and prevent a new war with Iran.